The Furcoat Dilemma

Nov 27th, 2000

An interesting dilemma from 2+2 fora...

-Izmet


To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts
Posted By: J-D
Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 2:47 a.m.
In Response To: Re: Top Players: How Many Re-Raises? (Louie Landale)

In a recent session I was on the wrong end of set-over-set when the flop came. I flopped a set of queens, to a board of:

King, Queen, Seven - with two clubs.

Five of us capped it on the flop; I was absolutely certain I had the best hand since I had put in the second (and last) raise pre-flop and the holder of "KK" was a very aggressive player whom I was sure would have capped it with "AA", "KK", - probably even with "AKs".

When a blank fell on the turn and he NOW decided to cap it, I was 99% sure of what he had. I called on the basis of the 1% I was wrong, and the fact that the fourth Queen would put the flush out giving me excellent implied odds. (Looking back, I may have even been getting 45-1 without future bets; it was a BIG pot.)

Of course the Queen landed on the river.

I checked, the Ace high flush bet, "KK" raised, sevens full and another flush just called. When it got back to me, I three-bet it;

I got paid off by everyone EXCEPT "KK", who flashed me his hand before he mucked it.

There were well over 50 big bets in the pot and he wouldn't pay one more bet to see it to the end - and his call would have almost certainly closed the action; this was no group of rocket scientists, but even they knew they were beaten - none of them were about to cap the betting.

In order for this to be a good laydown on his part, he would have to be more than 98% sure that he was beaten.

Looking at it from his perspective, he figured to win this hand approximately one time in a thousand.

IMO, and I am not a fan of laying down big hands on the river for one more bet in huge pots, I don't think he could win it that often.

P.S. Having said all that, I would have probably paid off; perhaps the day will come when I will be able to make such a laydowny, but it hasn't come yet. It doesn't really matter how good your hand is, or the size of the pot.

Sometimes even second nut isn't worth one more bet.

Just my opinion,

J-D


Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts
Posted By: Izmet Fekali
Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 7:02 a.m.
In Response To: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts (J-D)

J-D writes:
> perhaps the day will come when I will be able to make such a laydowny

Aaaarghh!!!

Someday you will make such a fold, it will be a good one and you will be happy. You will be able to afford a shrimp cocktail at Binions with the saved bet and maybe even treat a friend.

Feeling like a champ, you will do it again someday. But, this time a guy with Q2s will drag your pot, buy the cocktail waitress a fur coat and fuck her blue for a week. Now which guy do you want to be? The smart one with the shrimp cocktail or the stupid one with the sore dick?

From an old Albanian song:

"I was told by David Duchowny
ya' won't get rich by good laydowny!"

--
Izmet Fekali (I have a filthy mouth, Mason, please bear with me...)
Burek Experts Ltd.
Catering the World Since 1389!
Albania, Slovenia, Europe


Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts
Posted By: David Sklansky
Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 1:01 p.m.
In Response To: Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts (Izmet Fekali)

Unfortunately, when I wrote my Eight Mistakes In Poker and contrasted the mistake of folding when you should call with its opposite number, I did not have Izmet's explanation available to me. It will be included in my next edition.

David Sklansky